Is Lebanon on the brink of civil war or foreign aggression?

Saad Hariri has not yet succeeded in forming a government in Lebanon after 150 days. He has met with Michel Aoun eighteen times during this time and claims to have presented the president with a technical list of 18 ministers, which, of course, does not include a tribal composition and the majority of seats in parliament have no say in its decisions.

In recent days, tensions between the president and the cabinet have escalated to the point where Hariri has accused Michel Aoun of stoning the cabinet process and called for an early presidential election, Michel Aoun has also called for an increase in the power of the government led by Hassan Diab to approve the 2021 budget bill.

The sum of this war of words had an outcome, and that was the sharp decline in the value of the Lebanese national currency, so that at the same time as the black smoke left the Ba’bada Palace, the value of each Lebanese lira against the dollar entered the channel of 14,000 lira. At the height of the 33-day war, it did not exceed 1,500 lira per dollar.

In the meantime, mentioning a few points in the analysis of the current situation in the Lebanese political space can be helpful:

First; The issue must be sought in the serious determination of Michel Aoun to stand up to the demands of the parliamentary minority, emphasizing having one-third of the cabinet posts or the third guarantor of an effort to resist Saad Hariri’s unilateral decisions under the pretext of forming a technocratic government.

Second; Saad Hariri, who was forced to resign in November 1997 under pressure from Lebanese protesters to corrupt politicians, has never been the preferred option for the resistance, but the majority in parliament should have nominated a Sunni politician as prime minister and a political vacuum in the aftermath. The catastrophic explosion of the port of Beirut forced political currents to accept an option such as Hariri, which had a relative consensus of political currents to facilitate the solution of the people’s problems.

Third; The simultaneous election of Hariri to form a cabinet with the intensification of economic sanctions against Lebanon and Syria under the name of “Caesar” can be seen as an attempt to capture the Lebanese government by the Western-Arab current, which seeks to remove the resistance from the Lebanese cabinet.

Fourth; Efforts for early parliamentary elections The main goal of the West-Arab current was after the defeat in the 2018 parliamentary elections, which has not yet been achieved despite widespread socio-political pressures, and now Hariri is trying to accuse Aoun of stoning the process of forming a new government. Introduce the West-Arab current to pressure the parliament to elect an early president.

Fifth; External pressures to surrender Michel Aoun to Saad Hariri’s demands should not be overlooked. France, the United States and Saudi Arabia each have a stake in Saad Hariri’s play in delaying the formation of the Lebanese government, and the fruit of this political vacuum is only the escalation of economic problems and the targeting of popular support for the people to remove Hezbollah representatives from the cabinet. To oppose this deep-rooted Lebanese political current.

Sixth; Lebanese political sources and the media see a way out of the current crisis by increasing the number of cabinet ministers to comply with the tribal composition, an approach that is likely to lead to Hariri ousting the cabinet.

Seventh; The escalation of the political vacuum in Lebanon with the escalation of the election campaign in the occupied territories and Netanyahu’s attempt to retain the post of Prime Minister on the one hand and the repeated concerns of Zionist leaders about Hezbollah’s missile capability on the other reinforce the hypothesis that the Zionists cover up. Large-scale internal protests are once again seeking to ignite a new war on the northern front by taking advantage of the unsettled internal situation in Lebanon.

To this must be added the sudden decision of Saudi Arabia to fire on the Yemeni front and the upcoming Syrian presidential election, a situation which, according to the Hebrew, Western and Arab axes, is the season of harvesting seven years of crisis in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which was not interpreted once in 2006.

BY: Mohammad Ghaderi